Innovation, Prices, and Centralized Forecasts
"Prices are signals. They tell suppliers whether to enter, expand, invest, open a new site, adopt a new tool, run a trial, or develop a future treatment. Payment rules therefore become production rules.
A lower price produced through competition is a supply-side achievement. It means entry, productivity, innovation, lower-cost sites, or better organization have reduced the real resources required to deliver care. A lower price imposed by command is different. It can reduce the posted price while making supply less attractive, which can lead to exit, shortages, delayed innovation, quality tradeoffs, or budget-window savings that reappear later as less care or less innovation.
This distinction matters because many health-care price controls are largely invisible to patients. DRG rates, CPT-based physician fee schedules, Part B reimbursement, and IRA drug price controls do more than move money among payers and providers. They shape capacity, sites of care, investment decisions, quality, and the future supply of treatments. Affordability requires lower real resource costs, not merely lower displayed prices.
The danger of centralized supply control is that one forecast can become a national rule."
Full ASPE Report "Producing Health: Capability, Capacity, and Competitive Discovery in the Health Economy," by HHS Chief Economist and Chief Regulatory Officer Dr. Casey B. Mulligan:
aspe.hhs.gov/reports/produci…
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