Written by Shah Mahmood Qureshi on 14 May 2025 from Kot Lakhpat Jail, Lahore.
Vice Chairman PTI and former Foreign Minister of Pakistan.
Please note this is an abbreviated version for the sake of space. FULL article in image attached to this tweet.
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Pakistan’s armed forces have achieved ceasefire, through its measured, yet effective response against Indian aggression. Timely intervention of friends who lobbied for restraint, de-escalation and peace proved fruitful. War hysteria generated by the Indian media resulted in a standoff between two nuclear neighbours which could have easily spun out of control. A miscalculation could have triggered an accidental nuclear exchange, devastating for both countries.
Every conflict between India and Pakistan has set a new normal. We have climbed the escalatory ladder, from firing across the line of control, to a strike inside Pakistan in 2019 to targeting mainland Pakistan through drones, missile strikes and cyber-attacks. What was considered unthinkable yesterday has become kosher today. The concept of a limited war, under Modi’s rhetoric, is extremely dangerous. Prime Minister Modi’s statement that operation Sindoor continues and is not over yet, his warning that any future act of terrorism in Indian administered Kashmir will lead to a response that will not remain confined to clashes across the LoC but can go beyond that. This open threat itself is in fact a wake up call for all well-meaning friends, advocating peace and dialogue. Chatter of incomplete mission and the difficulty being faced by the BJP Govt, to sell the idea of a ceasefire through US intervention makes the ceasefire very fragile. Pakistan is remaining vigilant and on guard.
Pakistan appreciates the role played by President Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, but must be prepared for push back from India on third party mediation. PM Modi is under tremendous pressure from his political opposition to explain how ceasefire came about and why India has moved away from its stated policy of no third party mediation. India is extremely uncomfortable with Kashmir being projected as a flash point and the Kashmir dispute being internationalized once again. Understanding Indian reaction, the Trump administration has already started hinting that India and Pakistan ought to build on the breakthrough achieved and focus on direct communications. Similarly, Pakistan has rightly called the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty an act of war and has demanded India to respect and implement the bilateral agreement. It will be extremely difficult for the Modi government to do that in the current environment. Acknowledging the complex situation, the World Bank has highlighted its role of a facilitator, not a guarantor. Implying, India and Pakistan will have to bilaterally find a way forward. Negotiations on the issue of terrorism are going to be highly contentious. Both sides have a long list of complaints. A terrorist attack on a celebratory rally in Quetta today, 14th May, is a clear message that it is not over yet and we cannot afford to be complacent. Negotiation on the three-point agenda of Kashmir, IWT and terrorism are going to be very challenging. Pakistan will need to develop an internal consensus on these three very sensitive issues.
The armed forces have delivered and attained a military ceasefire. The question being debated is, can the political leadership achieve a political ceasefire? In my view, in order to celebrate the 10th of May, we need to move beyond the 9th of May.