The Islamic Republic is losing its grip on Iraq.
Iraq’s foreign minister says his country is an economic victim of the war and that Iraqi oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz in cooperation with the United States.
At the same time, flights between Iraq and Iran have come to a standstill. Ground handling companies stopped servicing them amid the threat of U.S. sanctions; flights through Baghdad, Najaf, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah were affected. Even Najaf, a major destination for Iranian pilgrims, was not exempt.
This is one indication that U.S. pressure on Iraq may be working. The threat of sanctions has changed what airport operators are willing to do, while cooperation over oil gives Iraq a way to protect its exports. But compliance on flights is easier to secure than a lasting change in Iraq’s relationship with the Islamic Republic.
The shift is taking place at sea, too. Most Iraqi seaborne crude normally leaves through the Persian Gulf and Hormuz. Disruption there threatens the revenue Iraq needs to run its state. Iraq has begun moving oil by truck through Syria and discussing a pipeline route to the Mediterranean. Those routes are limited today, but the reason for pursuing them is clear: Iraq cannot afford to leave its main source of income exposed to one contested strait.
Iranian energy remains another source of dependence. Iraqi power stations have relied on Iranian gas, while sanctions complicate payment for it. Iraq and the United States have discussed settling unpaid gas bills through food and medicine rather than cash transfers. That is a practical arrangement, but it also shows how much of the Iraq–Iran relationship now has to pass through U.S. financial restrictions.
None of this means the Islamic Republic has lost Iraq. Iran aligned militias still hold weapons and influence inside Iraqi institutions. Iraq’s government set September 30 as the deadline for armed groups to surrender their weapons to the state, alongside the planned end of the U.S. led coalition mission. Some powerful factions have rejected that demand. The approaching deadline is a test of whether Iraq can enforce the authority it is asserting.
That distinction matters. Iraqi authorities and airport operators can halt flights within days. Disarming groups with independent weapons, political allies, and outside backing requires far more than an order. Those groups can threaten U.S. interests and make Iraqi decisions costly to enforce.
That is the Islamic Republic’s narrowing position. It can still disrupt Iraq’s oil exports, electricity supply, and security. But the more Iraq pays for that leverage, the stronger its incentive to find other routes, other suppliers, and other partners.
The real test is whether Iraq can turn these individual decisions into lasting control over its borders, finances, and armed forces. Until then, the Islamic Republic retains a foothold. U.S. pressure appears to be changing some Iraqi decisions. September 30 will show whether that pressure can reach the Islamic Republic’s most durable source of influence: armed groups outside the state’s control.
Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein:
"We asked Tehran to allow Iraqi oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but received no positive response."