data-driven journalist, pollster & author of the book & Substack STRENGTH IN NUMBERS. co-founder @50plus1news. pollster @wave_polling. email me not DM
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Today I am publishing what I believe to be the most detailed available map of Trump's job approval rating. Powered by over 12,000 interviews for our Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. I hope this generates many stories, and hours wasted exploring data!
gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-…
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We have found one thing Donald Trump is more popular than: Flock cameras open.substack.com/pub/fiftyp…
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Our new Strength In Numbers/ @Verasight_data poll: 58% say the U.S. is worse off under Trump vs Biden, 24% say it’s better
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09…
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No president has ever gone into a midterm election as unpopular as Trump is today. Not even George W. Bush in 2006. Trump's net approval is twice as low as it was at this point in 2018. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/no-…
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Begging pollsters to just stop for a single hour releasing new surveys with the president hitting new lows so I can finalize these graphs for an article
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Democratic incumbents underperforming in an otherwise very Democratic year would be consistent with elevated levels of anti-incumbent bias driven by anxiety over excess prices and just generally negative political conditions
NY polling at D+9 in what polls are saying is a D+9 year nationally should be a flashing red light to Dems
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This chart uses the latest data from FiftyPlusOne.news
Trump’s approval is significantly below where it was at this point in 2018
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76% wrong priorities numbers is catastrophic. Have we ever seen this number this high?
The folly of focusing on ballrooms, arches, reflecting pools and the Kennedy Center (oh, and Iran).
(via new @CNN poll)
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G Elliott Morris retweeted
Great convention team
Trump's approval rating has hit a new low of 33% in our new Strength In Numbers/ @verasight_data poll just out this AM. POTUS's disapproval is 63%, for a net of -30.
Democrats lead by 10 points among likely voters on the generic ballot
Read more:
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09…
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Trump's approval rating has hit a new low of 33% in our new Strength In Numbers/ @verasight_data poll just out this AM. POTUS's disapproval is 63%, for a net of -30.
Democrats lead by 10 points among likely voters on the generic ballot
Read more:
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09…
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sorry didn't have time to post earlier when this happened but: fiftyplusone.news/polls/appr…
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The way one person explained it to me, the handicappers aren’t trying to forecast outcomes ahead of time so much as “skate to where the puck is” on Election Day (by delaying judgment on likelihood in competitive races). That is of… debatable utility
gelliottmorris.com/p/how-to-…
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If you use the term “toss-up” to describe an event with an 80-20 Dem likelihood, then… well I think you should find a new term gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09…
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It's polling season! How should you update your beliefs about the election in the face of new — often contradictory — data?
Here's a step-by-step example of how we do exactly that at Strength In Numbers:
gelliottmorris.com/p/how-to-…
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featuring this great insight
If it feels like every poll you’ve seen this year came from a D campaign and showed a toss-up, you’re not imagining things. D internals make up an all-time high share of internals this year. But is this real support, or just fuel for candidate fundraising?
blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why…
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G Elliott Morris retweeted
If it feels like every poll you’ve seen this year came from a D campaign and showed a toss-up, you’re not imagining things. D internals make up an all-time high share of internals this year. But is this real support, or just fuel for candidate fundraising?
blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why…
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The Democrat running in Montana could very easily cost Democrats the Senate gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07…
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G Elliott Morris retweeted
Democrats hit a new record high of 59% in our Senate forecast today and reached a lofty 93% chance of flipping the House—the highest figure since the brief gap b/w Virginia's later-annulled redistricting and Florida's. Our story explains what's changed 1/6 economist.com/graphic-detail…
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New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models.
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09…
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