Parliament has now entered its summer recess.
As a result, Andy Burnham will not face Prime Minister’s Questions or any other regular parliamentary occasion on which he might be challenged over his legitimacy, his lack of a personal mandate or his intentions towards the manifesto on which Labour was elected in 2024.
He is instead spending his first days in office deciding upon the composition of his Cabinet, and there are already reports of internal disagreement. Ed Miliband has apparently fallen out with Burnham and may not be appointed Chancellor, despite pressure from sections of the trade union movement. At present, nobody outside the negotiations appears to know precisely what is happening.
The Conservatives, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats are now waiting for their opportunity. Each will understand that Burnham’s lack of a personal mandate provides them with an unusually powerful line of attack. From the first day of his premiership, they will present him to the electorate as a man who entered Downing Street through an unprecedented political manoeuvre and a deliberate campaign against the sitting Prime Minister.
Reform UK must be considered especially seriously.
The party came second in the Manchester by election and has established a strong presence across many of the surrounding local authority areas. By the end of Burnham’s period as Mayor of Manchester, Reform appeared increasingly capable of mounting a credible challenge for the mayoralty itself.
This presents an important political contradiction. Manchester elected Burnham as its mayor, yet many communities across the wider area contain some of the strongest support in the country for Reform and for leaving the European Union. The politics of the region are sharply divided, and the strength of Reform’s support stands in direct contrast to the political image Burnham has attempted to project.
Reform has, however, experienced difficulties of its own. Nigel Farage is facing questions concerning his financial affairs and substantial sums of money that are alleged to remain insufficiently explained. At the same time, he has embarked upon a considerable political gamble by resigning as the Member of Parliament for Clacton and standing again in the resulting by election.
That decision could either strengthen or seriously damage him. Should Farage return with a commanding majority, many of the questions currently surrounding him and Reform may quickly recede. The party would return to the centre of political attention with renewed confidence, momentum and authority.
The Conservatives have benefited from Reform’s recent difficulties because those problems have allowed them to appear more relevant once again. A decisive Farage victory could reverse that process and push the Conservatives back towards political irrelevance.
Should Reform return strongly, it will be ideally placed to attack Burnham and the Labour Government. Although it has relatively few Members of Parliament, the party frequently punches well above its numerical weight in the House of Commons. A renewed surge of public support would galvanise its parliamentary presence and produce a sustained and coordinated attack upon Burnham.
For any opposition party, this is an extraordinarily powerful position from which to challenge a government. Every weakness, contradiction and failure will be seized upon far more aggressively than it ever was under Keir Starmer. Burnham will be judged not merely upon his decisions, but upon the manner in which he acquired the office in the first place.
Such a campaign would not remain confined to Westminster. Donald Trump would almost certainly seek to associate himself with it, and Elon Musk would be equally likely to intervene. Britain’s right wing press would hold nothing back. Every weakness, contradiction and failure within Burnham’s Government would be exposed, amplified and used relentlessly against him.
What we have seen from Burnham thus far is the politics of populism. In that respect, there are uncomfortable similarities between his political style and that of Nigel Farage. Burnham presents himself as the reassuring and benevolent Prime Minister who will spend billions of pounds improving welfare, public services and the lives of ordinary people. Yet he has not explained where the money will come from.
He insists that he will remain within the fiscal rules established under Keir Starmer, but it is difficult to understand how that can be reconciled with the spending commitments and political promises he has previously made. Burnham has repeatedly altered his position when circumstances have changed, and the opposition parties will be watching every statement for contradiction.
Their attacks will be relentless, and many of them will land heavily upon Burnham and his new Government.
There are also few genuinely commanding figures within the Burnham camp who appear capable of withstanding the political pressure that is coming. The left of the Labour Party will not necessarily remain united behind him. Some want Burnham to restore Jeremy Corbyn to the Parliamentary Labour Party, something that appears extremely unlikely to happen.
The internal conflict has therefore not disappeared. Burnham and Lucy Powell may say that the divisions of the past will now be brought to an end, but those divisions remain. We have already seen figures within Labour challenging or contradicting Burnham before he has even completed his first full day in office.
The public will also make its own judgement. People rarely respond warmly to those they regard as traitors or pretenders, and many will watch closely to see whether Burnham can justify the extraordinary manner in which he came to power.
For that reason, we do not believe he will remain Prime Minister until July 2029. At best, he may survive for approximately a year before being forced to seek a mandate through a general election, or before renewed infighting within the Labour Party begins to undermine his authority.
The claim that Labour’s internal conflict has ended is already being tested. Burnham is scarcely a day into the job, and the disagreements have begun.
Shabana Mahmood has been reappointed as Home Secretary
@ukhomeoffice.