Nearly all of Democrats’ best Senate pickup opportunities for the next three cycles are happening this year, with a path to a durable majority running through ruby-red states.
Sep 4, 2026 · 3:15 PM UTC
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We've estimated the share of moderates needed to win the general election in each state, assuming Democrats hold roughly nine in ten liberals and win a sliver of conservatives.
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The response from political observers on Bluesky will be predictable: run as a progressive Democrat and go to war against Trump. But Bluesky posters have never had to win a Trump county or a Trump state. Massachusetts and Oregon Democrats can run far to the left and appease the activist groups, but Josh Turek, Mary Peltola, and Sherrod Brown can’t.
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Winning back the Senate will require combative center-left candidates who offer a clear break from the status quo—not the Democratic Party brand voters just ousted.
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