A Democrat is leading in Texas Senate in a state Trump dominated. That's the real story here. 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Race 🔵 James Talarico (D): 47% 🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 46% 🟡 Ted Brown: 2% 2024: Trump +14 Emerson #A | n=1,000 LV | 9/12-14

Majorities want colleges using race in admissions to lose tax-exempt status—except Democrats are nearly 2-to-1 the other way. College Tax-Exempt Status & Affirmative Action 🔵 Should keep status: 29% 🔴 Shouldn't keep status: 40% 🟡 Undecided: 31% By party: 🔵 Dems: 49% keep | 24% lose 🟡 Indy: 27% keep | 36% lose 🔴 GOP: 15% keep | 61% lose YouGov #A | U.S. adults

Young Michigan voters are not split. They're running away. 2024 Michigan Senate Race (Ages 18-29) 🔵 El-Sayed: 82% 🔴 Rogers: 11% NYT/Siena #B | 9/22

Republican incumbent Phil Scott has lost ground fast in Vermont. A 16-point swing to Democrat Janoo flips the race in two months. Vermont Governor Race 🔴 Phil Scott (inc): 43% 🔵 Amanda Janoo: 49% July: Scott 44%, Janoo 33% UNH #C Source: University of New Hampshire

Socialism is underwater in swing states, but there's a striking generational fault line: young Pennsylvania voters are +6 favorable, while all voters statewide are -20. Net Favorability of Socialism 🔴 Michigan (All): -31 🔴 New Hampshire (All): -23 🔴 Pennsylvania (All): -20 🔴 Maine (All): -17 🔵 Pennsylvania (18-29): +6 🟡 Maine (18-29): +1 🟡 New Hampshire (18-29): +1 🔴 Michigan (18-29): -3 NYT/Siena #B | Sept 25, 2026

Dead heat in Michigan's 2026 Senate race—neither candidate has broken through yet. 2026 Michigan Senate 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed: 50% 🔴 Mike Rogers: 50% 2024: Trump +1 co/efficient #C | n=843 | likely voters | Sept 21-23

🏛️ Pollfinity Swingometer 2026 House projection: D 248 | R 187 Net swing: +7.6% toward Democrats Generic ballot: D 56.13% | R 43.87% 48 seats in play

Brown's holding Ohio despite the national environment. Here's what the polling actually shows 🧵 2026 Ohio Senate 🔵 Sherrod Brown: 45% 🔴 Jon Husted: 42% Trafalgar Group #C | n=1085 | LV | Sept 14-16, 2026 (Source: Trafalgar Group, N=1085, 2026-09-16)

📋 POLLFINITY TODAY — Friday, September 25 Here's what we're dropping: 🏛️ 2026 Ohio 🗳️ 🏛️ Pollfinity Swingometer 💰 💰 BREAKING FROM POLLFINITY: (Polymarket) 🏛️ 2026 New York Governor Race 📊 Top Issues for Americans (September 2026) (YouGov) 🔴 Economist/YouGov Net job approval for Donald Trump at the start 📊 2026 Generic Ballot 🔴 Economist/YouGov Net job approval for Donald Trump at the start (YouGov) 🏛️ GEORGIA POLL - Senate 🟦 Jon Ossoff (inc): 51% 🟥 Mike Collins: (YouGov) 🔴 U.S. Economic Sentiment at Start of Trump's Second Term (YouGov) 🔍 Trust in China, the U.S. and the EU to regulate AI (Pew Research Center) 🔵 MAINE POLL - Senate 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 49% 🟦 Troy Jackso (NYT/Siena) 🔴 TX Senate Crosstabs by ReconMR/Siena 🟦 James Talarico: 49% 🟥 (ReconMR/Siena) 🌐 Iran War Expectations (YouGov/Economist) 🗳️ 2026 Congressional Elections (YouGov/Economist) All data from real polls. No spin. Follow @Pollfinity for live updates 👇

Independents are breaking hard for Democrats heading into 2026 — backing a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican by 54% to 27%, a 27-point margin. Q: How would you vote for U.S. Congress? (Source: YouGov/The Economist, Independents among likely voters, Sept. 14, 2026)

Among all U.S. adults, the 2026 generic ballot is nearly tied — Republicans 33%, Democrats 31%. Compare that to likely voters in the same poll, where Democrats lead by 14 points. The 2026 race may hinge entirely on turnout. (Source: YouGov/The Economist, N=1,568 U.S. adults, Sept. 21, 2026)

More Americans say their personal finances are getting worse (34%) than better (30%) — a net negative reading heading into the 2026 midterms. Q: Are your personal finances getting better or worse? (Source: Scott Rasmussen, N=1,000 registered voters, Sept. 15, 2026)

Georgia's narrowest governor race in years masks a stark racial realignment. 2026 Georgia Governor Race 🔴 Jackson: 47% 🔵 Bottoms: 44% White voters: Jackson +33 Black voters: Bottoms +64 YouGov #A | n=3,069 LV | 9/15–18/2022

North Carolina Senate: Cooper pulls to 13-point lead as Trump disapproval hits 60% in GOP state 2026 North Carolina Senate Race 🔵 Roy Cooper: 54% 🔴 Michael Whatley: 41% President Trump (NC) 🔵 Approve: 39% 🔴 Disapprove: 60% YouGov #A | n=3,511 LV | 9/15-18

🚨 BREAKING FROM POLLFINITY: 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate Race 🟢 Jon Ossoff (D, incumbent): 51% 🔴 Mike Collins (R): 43% YouGov | n=3,071 | Likely Voters | Sept 15–18, 2026 (6% undecided)

Democrat leads GOP incumbent in Kansas Senate—a 22-point swing from Trump's 2024 margin. 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate 🔵 Adan Hamilton: 50% 🔴 Roger Marshall: 48% Wedgewood #C | n=500 LV | 9/22–9/24

Republicans divided on Iran war while Democrats show rare consensus Iran War Retrospective 🔵 Wrong decision: 57% 🔴 Right decision: 23% By party: 🔵 Democrats: 88% wrong, 2% right 🔴 Republicans: 53% right, 21% wrong YouGov/Economist #A | Sep 18-21

🚨 BREAKING FROM POLLFINITY: Trump Job Approval (Strong Opinions Only) 🔴 Strongly disapprove: 48% 🟢 Strongly approve: 15% Economist/YouGov | Sep 18-21, 2026 | Adults Second-term low on strong approval amid ongoing political turbulence.

Abbott trails independents in Texas by 13, but the generational breakdown reveals a deeper vulnerability: Gen Z backs Hinojosa by 52 points while Boomers favor Abbott by 21. 2026 Texas Governor Race (Independents) 🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 52% 🔴 Greg Abbott: 39% 🔵 Gen Z: Hinojosa +52 🔵 Millennials: Hinojosa +9 🔴 Gen X: Abbott +4 🔴 Boomer/Silent: Abbott +21 Marist #A

Democrats' generic ballot advantage just hit its widest point in YouGov/Economist's eight-year tracking. 2026 Generic Ballot 🔵 Democrats: 51% 🔴 Republicans: 39% Oct. 2018: Dems +6 | Oct. 2022: GOP +1 | Sept. 2026: Dems +12 YouGov/Economist #A | Sept. 2026

Trump's approval hits his lowest point in either term as net disapproval on inflation reaches -60. Presidential Approval 🔴 Disapprove: 67% 🔵 Approve: 33% Net approval on key issues: 🔴 Inflation: -60 (new low) 🔴 Economy: -46 (new low) 🔴 Iran: -46 (new low) 🔴 Immigration: -22 CNN/SSRS #C | n=1,206 | 9/16-17